A1:
The differences between forecast and prediction are somehow different for different fields. In meteorology, weather prediction is the scientific conclusion, and weather forecast is the message broadcast to the public. In contrast, in seismology, earthquake forecast is an activity of the scientific community, and earthquake prediction is the message exposed to the public by a governmental agency.
A2:
In earthquake science, earthquake forecast and earthquake prediction also have their clear meaning, respectively, that forecast is to say that something would happen probably, and prediction is to say that something will happen definitely.
A:
Earthquake forecast study in Chinese (‘Dizhen Yuce Yanjiu’, in which ‘Dizhen’=earthquake, ‘Yuce’=forecast, and ‘Yanjiu’=study) has a wider coverage than that in English, from seismic hazard assessment (SHA, in Chinese it is ‘long-term earthquake forecast’), time-dependent seismic hazard assessment (in Chinese it is ‘middle-term earthquake forecast’), to earthquake interaction (in Chinese it is a part of the forecast of an earthquake sequence). Moreover, Chinese scientists tend to classify the geology, geodesy, geochemistry, and geophysics of earthquakes and candidate earthquake precursors in the category of ‘earthquake forecast study’. This might be a culture difference similar to that between the Chinese ‘Loong’ and the western ‘dragon’, which cannot exclude that we actually have common languages in the study of earthquake forecast/prediction.
A :
Continental earthquakes, a mixture of interpolate and intra-plate earthquakes, have complicated patterns of their preparation and occurrence, and threaten the sustainability of the society directly. Earthquakes in China consists mainly continental earthquakes. In the history, symposia on earthquake forecasting held in China were directly connected to the Conference on Continental Earthquakes. The series included the 1982, 1992, 2004 Conference on Continental Earthquakes in Beijing, and the 2018 Conference on Continental Earthquakes (in connection to the 10th anniversary of the Wenchuan earthquake) in Chengdu.
A:
We do not presume whether earthquakes can be predicted or not. At present time, it is the question how accurate the prediction could be (the location, the time, and the magnitude), how to improve such accuracy, and how to use the predictive message (with limited accuracy) in disaster risk reduction (DRR). Discussion and debate on these issues are the agenda of our meeting. Haicheng earthquake told that some earthquakes could be predicted, and despite its imperfectness, it was useful. We are open to all the points in the spectra from ‘earthquakes can be predicted’ to ‘earthquakes cannot be predicted’, but we stress ‘if you say that earthquakes can be predicted, show us your evidence; if you say that earthquakes cannot be predicted, show us your evidence’.
A:
Since the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, destructive earthquakes which have been successfully predicted, that is, with successful short-to-imminent prediction, included, but were not limited to, the following.
May 29, 1976, Longling, Yunnan, Magnitude 7.4
August 16, 1976, Songpan, Sichuan, Magnitude 7.2
July 12, 1995, Menglian, Yunnan, Magnitude 7.3
April 6, 1997, Jiashi, Xinjiang, Magnitude 6.4
November 29, 1999, Xiuyan, Liaoning, Magnitude 5.4
October 16, 2003, Dayao, Yunnan, Magnitude 6.1
October 25, 2003, Shandan, Gansu, Magnitude 6.1
January 8, 2022, Menyuan, Qinghai, Magnitude 6.9
September 5, 2022, Luding , Sichuan, Magnitude 6.8
January 23, 2024, Wushi, Xinjiang, Magnitude 7.1
A:
The 1975 Haicheng earthquake was in Liaoning Province. Shenyang is the capital city of Liaoning Province. Shenyang is easy in transportation and communication with Beijing and Shanghai.
If you want to know more about Shenyang, please visit https://www.shenyang.gov.cn/english/
A:
The Haicheng earthquake occurred on February 4, 1975. February was a cold season in northeastern China, and the season of the Chinese Spring Festival. Selecting early July has dual reasons, that firstly the weather is friendly to all participants from different places of the world, even if Chinese in south China where the temperature is high at that time; and secondly June to July is the time of the half year annual consultation on the likelihood of earthquakes (the ‘Nianzhong Dizhen Qushi Huishang’, in which ‘Nianzhong’=mid year, ‘Dizhen’=earthquake, ‘Qushi’= likelihood, and ‘Huishang’=consultation), an important test of prospect earthquake forecast in China since early 1970s. In June-July more people would be coming to our meeting with more practical questions. Moreover for universities July is the summer vacation, which is convenient for professors and students to come to our meeting.
A:
Earthquake Science (hosted by the Institute of Geophysics, CEA), and Earthquake Research Advances (hosted by the China Earthquake Networks Center), both in English, are planning to publish their special issues (virtual special issues) for the 50year anniversary of the Haicheng earthquake. Earthquake (hosted by the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, CEA), World Earthquake Engineering (hosted by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics, CEA), and Journal of Disaster Prevention and Reduction (hosted by Liaoning Earthquake Agency), are in Chinese, planning to publish their special issues.
Links to these journals are as follows:
Earthquake Science
https://www.equsci.org.cn/news/46
Earthquake Research Advances
Earthquake
World Earthquake Engineering
https://sjdz.paperonce.org/#/Login
Journal of Disaster Prevention and Reduction
http://ddyj.cbpt.cnki.net/WKD/WebPublication/wkTextContent.aspx?colType=3
